Go Cocks!!

It's all worth it.

Mid-season form

Poker blog huh? Guess that's debatable. The truth isn't I haven't been playing at all the last month or so. It's not even that I'm scared of my new association with terrorists, it's that I have been swamped under with school and a completely unhealthy obsession with college football. I have a problem, I can admit it, I just don't want to do anything about it.

I expect I will be able to play some online after midterms are over next week, and I would like to play some live games. But the G-Vegas home game scene seems to be drying up, and I don't know of too many games in my neck of the woods.

So I'm stuck with college football, and the season is finally getting good. I debated for about 10 minutes on whether or not to write this next part, but I am a Gamecock fan and by definition my optimism runs rampant. Mid-season report for my beloved team is 4-2, with the likelihood of at least 5-1 if we had realized our weakness at O-line earlier and replaced QB's. Still, and this is where you can make fun of me, the USC essentially holds it's own destiny in winning the SEC East. All we must do is run the SEC table through Vandy, UT, Arkansas, and UF. Piece of cake. . . I remain extremely cautiously optimistic.

As for the best teams in the country, the SEC is a bitch, ain't it? UF and Auburn both look like title contenders, but you just can't really go undefeated in this league. Ohio State looks nasty, and the UM-OSU game should be one of the best in history. ND looks vastly overrated for the most part, as I suspected before the season began. So Cal is going to finally lose one of these close calls one day, and they will drop from their lofty position in a hurry. The defending champs are a very good team, but not among tier one this year. Just too many people to replace. As for the ACC, well, that conference is a joke. Wish we had Clemson's schedule this year. The most intriguing team for me is WVU. I didn't really ever believe in this group until the Sugar Bowl last year, but I'm pretty high on this year's version. They have incredible speed and if their defense improves, they could have a chance to go to the MNC this year. They won't have any challenge this season, though, except maybe Louisville. So they should cruise through their schedule without much adversity. I don't watch too much CFB. . .really.

So my predictions for the rest of the year:
SEC champ - Florida
ACC champ - GT(who cares?)
Big 10 - OSU
Big 12 - UT
Big East - WVU
Pac 10 - Cal (not that good, but neither is the Pac 10)

National Championship - OSU vs. UF. That will be one helluva game, OSU wins.

Poker content - Try not to get arrested.

Goal oriented

I don't know why but I haven't enjoyed ESPN's coverage of the ME nearly as much as in previous years, it just isn't as good to me. And I really hate that so many asshats get so much coverage simply because they are asshats.

I've also decided to take up Blood's challenge. I haven't been playing much because of school, and when I do it's not with purpose or direction, more of just screwing around. But I've decided on a challenge after reading Blood's post. I'm going to make enough money to finance a 2-3 week trip to Europe next summer. If I do it it will come through a tourney or three, so I can only play when I really have time. Won't play much, but it will be quality time. Hopefully I can make some money out of it.

Congrats to the Big Pirate for an outstanding win. I'd love to play any time, sir, let me know.

Go Steelers!

I don't expect my new affinity for the Black and Gold to go beyond tonight, but circumstances have led me to pull very hard for defending champs, as I expect much of the online gambling world will be doing.

Sports betting is a risky proposition for me, with the NCAA tourney being the only decent money I've made through this particular style of gambling. The handicappers always seem to beat me by a point, which is what makes them good at their job and makes me an amateur. But I've got the Steelers in a pick 'em and in this bet, I really can't lose.

As for the Cocks this weekend, the line is somewhere around +3 for the Cocks. I wish I could say take the points, and the game will certainly be close. . .but I am not remotely sure of the outcome. I'll be there Saturday in my garnet cheering like hell, though.

I am. . .

A terrible poker player. I make stupid plays and get way too lucky. I apologize to Random101 for a horrendous beat I put on him, truly sick.

I would, however, like to thank Blood and MrsBlood for allowing me to come into their home and have some fun playing live poker.

Tip of the day for poker - get very lucky.

It starts

It's overcast and rainy today, and not likely to get better until Saturday or Sunday. Doesn't matter at all, today is a glorious day.

College football begins today, thank all deities responsible for that possibility.

Tonight we beat MSU in Starkville, and next week we play at home against UGA. This is so much better than Christmas.

GO COCKS!

Edit - Here's some advice for the rare gambler that stumbles on this blog. Take the Gamecocks and give the points, it's moving now but take anything better than -9.5 for the Cocks.

H.O.R.S.E. Anatomy

As I said, I'm sick of HE all the time. I am, however, enjoying playing it 1/5th of the time. I've been playing these SNG's at the $22-$55 level, and I would like to break down a few observations I've had.

First off, the players are bad, really bad. In almost every SNG I've played there are at least 4 players who are complete dead money without a gigantic smack in the face from variance. These players have allowed me an incredible ROI that I can't imagine can be sustained over the long term. If so, then I have found a gold mine.

Starting the SNG I am incredibly tight. I don't raise pre-flop in early rounds unless I have an absolute monster, because I will get called in multiple places. The key is to value bet the hell out of your good hands and hope you don't get outdrawn, as well as getting away from hands that started well but aren't the nuts. In the end, they won't win over the other players in the hand. You think they couldn't be bad enough to hold the cards that would make their hand, but they most certainly are.

Another key I've found is mostly stay away from Hold 'Em, throughout the SNG. This is an odd adjustment for me, because HE is easily my best game. Thing is, it's everyone's best game. Like I said, I'm not expert at all of the other games, but I'm decent at them. That puts me way ahead of the field. My advantage in the other games is much greater than the slim advantage I have in HE. So I exploit them 80% of the time and pick my battles the other 20%. Especially razz, for some reason there are always at least 2 or 3 players who think their Q is good enough to go to 6th before folding. I try not to let them know that Q77 isn't that great of a starter in razz.

My final observation just carries over from most every tournament and SNG I've ever played. Be aggressive at the bubble. People love to get in the money, and they don't mind if they are short to do it. Raise every reasonably high card up in Stud, pound the button in the early rounds, play a J9 4 like it's the nuts in razz. Unless they catch well, they will fold and you will pick up much needed blinds/antes and bring-ins. More often than not I go into the final 3 as the big stack, or one of two big stacks, and it always come from bubble play.

So jump into some HORSE SNG's, I'm quite sure you are better than me at most of the games. I can't imagine they'll be this good forever, but I've been saying that for years. . .